What is victory in Iraq?

Victory in Iraq. What is it? Are we victorious, defeated, both, neither? Well, I'll tell you.

Wars are a series of battles that make up a larger war. Taking France in the Normandy invasion was important, but that in itself didn't defeat Hitler. It was a series of smaller victories and defeats that led to a larger victory in WWII.

It's a bit harder to see victory in Iraq, but we've already won the most crucial battle: we deposed Saddam.

Saddam WAS a threat to the US, most certainly had ties with Al Queda, and absoutely would have developed WMD after sanctions were ended. I know, you think I'm full of it; but read the Iraq Survey Group, read the 9/11 Commission Report, read the Senate Intel reports, and read my report of the Senate Intel Report here: http://loudcrickets.blogspot.com/2006/09/phase-ii-intelligence-report-as-told.html

So removing Saddam, which Bush signified with a big "Mission Accomplished" banner on the aircraft carrier, WAS a significant "mission" that was "accomplished". Right? Right.

Apart from that, where are we now? Since Saddam's deposition(?), are we winning? How do we even define winning?

Well, a HUGE victory in Iraq would be: Iraq is a stable democracy without active participation from the US military.

Now, does that mean all insurgents will be caught? No. That is impossible: ANY democracy in the heart of the Middle East will be a target for foreign insurgents FOREVER.

There will also ALWAYS be sectarian tensions because of the large numbers of Shiites AND Sunnis in Iraq and in Baghdad. Again, NOTHING will stop that, they've been fighting for centuries.

If Iraq consistently has democratic elections, AND ALSO trains enough police/military to stop US military from doing active patrols, that is victory in Iraq.

We should capture/kill as many al Queda as we can while we are in Iraq, because al Queda has NO interest in stability in Iraq. They want INSTABILITY so the democracy will fall and they can hopefully install a theocracy in Iraq. That's why Al Queda kills US military AS WELL as Iraqi police/military AS WELL as blowing up generators/oil refineries AS WELL as killing ORDINARY IRAQIS IN MARKETS. They only care about instability for Iraq, NOT ABOUT FREEDOM FOR IRAQ.

Again, there will always be violence in Iraq. There will be power shortages and a weak economy for a long time. Though of crucial importance to Iraqis themselves, they are not so important to the US. Benchmarking victory on Iraq on these things is foolish: you mean to tell me that in 3 years, we had a stable democracy in Iraq, US military stood down, and insurgents blew up power stations that reduced power output, that would mean US defeat? Hardly.

As for violence, there is violence THROUGHOUT the Middle East. Is Israel a "failed state" because they had daily suicide bombings? No.

Is Saudi Arabia a "failed state" because Al Queda kills Americans there, kills Saudis, and tries to overthrow the government? No.

What about Jordan, Egypt, Pakistan? These countries are ALL subecjt to terrorist attacks. Are they "failed states"? No.

So the fact that violence is in Iraq doesn't mean US has lost, or Iraq has "failed". It's just unlucky to be a country in the Middle East in 2006.

Elections in Iraq are a success: though the Sunnis boycotted the first election, they REALLY VOTED EN MASSE in the second election. What does this prove? That maybe they want to have a democratic Iraq! If ALL Sunnis rejected democracy, they wouldn't have voted.

Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds recognize the DEMOCRATICALLY-elected Government in Iraq. It's not rejected by Sunnis or Kurds. All 3 groups recognize it, which is crucial.

What is left in Iraq is militias (some funded by Iran and Syria) to destabilize Iraq, as well as foreign insurgents like Al Queda who want to destabilize Iraq. There is also a certain % of people that just want to kill the other sect, though without weapons from a militia or terrorist group, people would merely be haters instead of able to kill people.

Leaving Iraq now will leave the government in Iraq vulnerable to collapse, leading to the takeover by Iran and/or Islamic militants. Before they took over, there would be YEARS of MASSIVE civil war and REAL GENOCIDE in Iraq. That would be a defeat for the US, for Iraq, and for the World.

It's tragic and disgusting to see so many innocent Iraqis or US soldiers die in Iraq. But what do US soldiers fight for? They fight to build a stable Iraq, so that we can hope to transform the Middle East to the rest of the modern world. The Modern world is anathema to Islamic militants, which is why turning Iraq into a stable, modern country is so important. If Iraq propsers, more people in the Middle East will trn to the US/Iraq as a model, NOT AL QUEDA. Transforming Iraq into a modern country is ambitious, but not impossible at all. Iraqis are extremely well-educated, and before Saddam, Iraq was very modern and prosperous. Those same traits STILL EXIST in Iraq today.

Insurgents attack because they are counting on US losing its nerve and pulling out so they can more easily take over. This is why they attack the US: http://loudcrickets.blogspot.com/2006/09/do-you-know-why-islamic-terrorists.html

In the big picture in Iraq, progress is slow, but palpable. People in Iraq think that next year will be better than this year. That signifies hope, which is crucial to move forward. US soldiers are dying, and we are paying a high price, but pulling out will be a defeat in Iraq, and stabilizing Iraq a victory in Iraq.

So by any rational standard, Saddam's removal was a REAL VICTORY; it would be a victory for the US if we could remove Kim Jong Il and Iran's President! Saddam's removal was Mission Freakin' Accomplished! But even with the victory of Saddam's removal, we have another mission: to stabilize Iraq. We can be victorious in this mission, or we can be defeated. if Iraq merely continues on the same trajectory they are on now(I didn't say "stay the course" :) , then US, and the Iraqi people, will be victorious in Iraq. Given that more Iraqi troops are coming online every day, and the government of Iraq itself is holding solid, it's clear to say that we've already achieved a great deal of victory in Iraq, which will be solidified over time.